Bayesian-estimation-based method for generating fragility curves for high-fidelity seismic probability risk assessment

This paper presents a Bayesian-estimation-based seismic fragility assessment method that can significantly reduce the computational burden. The likelihood function and prior distribution used in Bayesian estimation were enhanced. A probability density of capacity was adopted as function, although previous studies have generally curve. Further, assumed based on obtained by incremental dynamic analysis. sophisticated parametric study additionally conducted, we information unknown parameters to establish initial values. Preliminary investigations show these enhancements reduced required number simulations approximately 1/5 conventional method. Then, applied reinforced-concrete water intake system, which is critical component core-cooling system nuclear power plants (NPPs). results revealed curves determined using proposed with 12 repetitions comparable those detailed developed Atomic Energy Society Japan 500 repeated simulations. Therefore, concluded could be high-fidelity structures substantially